Dozens of Labour MPs, including cabinet ministers with flimsy majorities, risk losing their seats over the government’s incoming Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) cuts to disabled people’s support. Data shared between MPs shows there are over 80 seats where majorities are slimmer than the number of people who may lose their Personal Independence Payment (PIP).
There will be a possible June vote on the £5 billion cut, which to many is simply austerity 2.0 and another instance of Labour acting potentially worse than the Tories.
One issue is that, ahead of the 2024 election, Keir Starmer purged as many left-wing MPs as possible, while filling the Commons with ‘yes men’ who do whatever he says. This placed Starmer’s government on an authoritarian footing, after he already attempted to suppress the democracy of the Labour membership through nullifying their power and lying to them. It has resulted in many Labour MPs merely writing strongly worded letters about the cuts to disabled people’s support, rather than actually voting against them.
Just one term for Starmer thanks to DWP cuts?
But the lack of a robust approach to government may have electoral consequences. Health secretary Wes Streeting risks losing his seat to independent Leanne Mohamad. In the 2024 election, she was only around 500 votes away from unseating him. And indeed, polling from April has Mohamad on 41% and Streeting trailing on just 19%. Even the Tory candidate is ahead of him.
Then there’s Jess Phillips, safeguarding minister. In the last election, disabled activist and candidate for the Workers Party of Britain Jody McIntyre came within around 700 votes of unseating her.
Justice secretary Shabana Mahmood may also lose her seat because of the number of disabled people losing DWP support in her constituency. Independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob came within around 3,400 votes of thwarting her in the 2024 election.
Although, there are many at risk seats that have Nigel Farage’s party in second place. Labour’s Nia Griffith is only around 1,500 votes away from losing her seat to the Reform candidate in Llanelli.
A number of Westminster voting intention polls since the October budget have had Labour either behind or neck and neck with Reform. One Survation poll from April showed Starmer’s party bleeding huge numbers of votes to Reform in the North.
Starmer had won back their support through committing to Brexit. That’s after he shamelessly championed a second referendum to sabotage Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership while he was shadow Brexit secretary.
Labour failures – a brighter or darker future?
It’s not just the proposed DWP cuts to disabled people’s support. YouGov polling from March found that 81% of people believe Labour is handling the cost of living crisis ‘badly’, while only 12% think they are doing well on this key issue. Further, 70% of Britons (including almost half of Labour voters) say the government isn’t managing the economy well. And just one in seven believe chancellor Rachel Reeves has done a good job.
The issue is, at present, Labour’s failures especially around DWP cuts appear to be paving the way for Reform rather than a left alternative. The Green party made historic gains in 2024. But they still do not seem to be making the most of Labour’s move to the right.
People may well mistake them for a single issue party – more of a pressure point than a governing force. And the concern that the electoral system favours the two main parties is another factor. 50% of people considering voting Green view them as a potentially wasted vote.
Perhaps a left electoral coalition could prove successful, like what we saw in France.
Featured image via the Canary
