Labour could well unseat three potential Conservative leadership candidates in the next election.
Unprecedented humiliation
At present, the ruling party is debating who will succeed Theresa May. On 8 May, the Conservatives’ influential 1922 committee of backbenchers met to try and flush out May’s intentions. From within the party, calls for her to resign are widespread.
But three possible successors could bring the party unprecedented humiliation. Because these high-profile MPs are at risk of losing their seats.
Amber Rudd
Work and pensions secretary Amber Rudd has said that it’s “entirely possible” that she will run for the leadership. Rudd claimed she has “kept the door slightly ajar”.
But the former home secretary has a majority of just 346. Increasing Labour’s vote share by over 11% in the constituency, Corbyn-led Labour came very close to unseating Rudd in 2017.
With such a skinny majority, Rudd surely could not lead the Conservatives into the next election.
Justine Greening
Former education minister Justine Greening is another high-profile possible Conservative leadership contender. Greening said she “might well” join the race, explaining:
we have to answer the question about why we have failed to connect with people and their ambitions. Until we have a leadership that understands why that’s happened, we won’t be able to change it.
But Greening becoming leader would also be risky. Because, after the 2017 election, Greening was left with a majority of just 1,554.
Under Labour’s new direction, the party slashed her majority and increased its vote share by over 10% in the seat.
Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson could well emerge as the front-runner to succeed May. Indeed, the former foreign secretary is reportedly “primed and ready” to launch a campaign.
But, after Labour’s performance in 2017, Johnson’s seat looks a lot less safe than it did when he first took it. With Labour increasing its vote share by over 13% in Uxbridge, the MP’s majority fell to 5,034. There is also a targeted grassroots campaign to unseat Johnson and other Conservative MPs are now “on the run”.
Untold story
While Labour netted 30 seats in the last election, the untold story is how the party changed Tory safe seats into marginals. Other examples include former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith’s Chingford and Woodford Green (a majority of 2,438) and defected MP Anna Soubry’s Broxtowe (a majority of just 863).
The new electoral battleground means Corbyn’s Labour has teed up victory for the next election. Even Conservative leadership candidates are at risk of losing their seats. It’s pure self-delusion on the part of the ruling class that someone with a majority as thin as Rudd’s could lead the Conservatives. And anyone sick of austerity, concerned about oncoming climate catastrophe and the fate of our NHS should fight to make sure these Tories are booted out of parliament.
Featured image via Flickr – tiocfaidh_ar_la_1916/Wikimedia
