The media has been very quiet about a surprising YouGov poll released mid-April. Commissioned by The Times, the poll shows Labour with a three point lead ahead of the Conservatives:
- Lab 34%
- Con 31%
Jeremy Corbyn also smashed David Cameron in personal trust ratings, by 7 points:
- Corbyn 28%
- Cameron 21%
The Times downplayed the result and made the poll about the EU referendum, rather than looking at the implications for Corbyn’s Labour. And you would think the rest of the media would publish a result this extraordinary within the context that Corbyn is ‘unelectable’.
More recently, the aggregate polling table shows Corbyn a whisker off Cameron since mid-March. He has been ahead twice and once tied.
And it is not just this YouGov poll that shows the public trust Corbyn over Cameron:
On who is seen as more honest than most politicians:
D. Cameron: 23%
J. Corbyn: 47%
(via Ipsos Mori / 16 – 18 Apr)— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 25, 2016
This Ipsos Mori poll from the same week puts Corbyn 24 points ahead of Cameron. Trust is very important. It is the foundation by which you can sell the policies that win elections.
Corbyn also scored higher than Cameron on the next step to winning:
On who is seen as understanding the problems facing Britain:
D. Cameron: 46%
J. Corbyn: 48%
(via Ipsos Mori / 16 – 18 Apr)— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 25, 2016
The public must feel you understand the problems if you are to deliver the solution, and Corbyn is two points ahead of Cameron on this vital building block.
However it is the third step where Corbyn falters, according to this Ipsos Mori poll:
On who is seen as having a clear vision for Britain:
D. Cameron: 52%
J. Corbyn: 39%
(via Ipsos Mori / 16 – 18 Apr)— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 25, 2016
Cameron is 13 points ahead of Corbyn on having a clear vision. To remedy this, Corbyn needs to focus on a few core issues and really hammer the message home. Housing, health and welfare should be at the forefront with a key, unwavering vision for each.
Public opinion is turning against austerity. Corbyn’s Labour needs to establish a counter-narrative of an investment, stimulus based economy. It must ignore the corporate media, which will always beat Corbyn with anything it can find.
It’s over four years until the General Election – there is plenty of time to develop clear policies supported by an increasing membership. If the membership supports the policies then members are more likely to transition into activists. Considering the Conservatives have the support of the majority of the media, and powerful individuals, an active membership is vital to winning in 2020.
Labour should be very clear about how it would handle the housing crisis. Social housing is a macroeconomic no brainer – and communicating that to the electorate is the winning ticket.
When you build a social house the money does not just disappear; the costs are returned to the state through affordable rent payments. And once a family has the security of a home they are in a position to be more economically active. For example, they can start a business, enter higher education or hone their skills. Recent figures show a 21.4% drop in adults undertaking Further Education under the Tories. Perhaps because the housing crisis means people are spending all their time trying to pay rent.
Social housing also means people will have more disposable income to spend in the local economy because their money is not eaten up by landlords. The policy increases aggregate demand. Meanwhile, the economy is stimulated because building creates demand for materials and creates construction jobs.
A clear housing policy is just one example of what Labour needs to smash the final step to winning. Labour must never overestimate what the public know, but never underestimate people’s intelligence. The idea of an investment based economy can be sold to the people – Labour just needs to speak up.
Get involved!
–Remember to vote in the local elections on 5 May.
Featured image via Labour website.
