New polling released on Tuesday 25 June shows that Jeremy Corbyn is further behind the Labour Party in the polls than many on the left expected:
NEW Constituency Poll in Islington North for @LeftieStats and @novaramedia.
LAB 43% (-22)
IND 29% (new)
LD 7% (-8)
GRE 7% (-1)
REF 6% (+5 from Brexit Party)
CON 6% (-4)
OTH 2% (+2)F/w 20th – 25th June. Changes vs. Notional 2019 result pic.twitter.com/t0cRGLbUHY
— Survation. (@Survation) June 25, 2024
My take on this poll: pic.twitter.com/jWDOmn01X5
— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️⚧️ (@LeftieStats) June 25, 2024
Should we listen to the polling?
While 514 is a very small sample size – less than 1% of the Islington North population, it does raise some questions. Many people on X were quick to speculate that not enough people realise Corbyn is standing as an independent. Some people may still presume he is standing for Labour. With some canvassers even confirming that is the vibe they’re getting on the doorstep:
This poll sets us up for a tough run in Islington. It’s very clear that not enough voters are aware Jeremy is no longer Labour. With just 9 days to go we need all the help we can get to get the word out in Islington North. pic.twitter.com/BbeoEmHXll
— Babble (@Babble____) June 25, 2024
This is what you would say cos your terminally online brain could not compute that on the door step there is a very large amount of voters who say they are unaware of JC running as an independent.
— Babble (@Babble____) June 25, 2024
I saw a journalist say that asking some constituents who they were voting for said “Corbyn of course, I’m voting Labour”.
— Claire Higgins (@ClarNiUigin) June 25, 2024
However, it does leave some of us wondering whether we have become trapped in a far-left social media echo chamber. Or, perhaps the poll is truly inaccurate:
A two-horse race between private healthcare candidate & @jeremycorbyn.
We cannot be complacent. This poll shows the Tories have no chance of winning here. A vote for JC will not risk Tories winning.
I urge you to please get out and canvass for JC. Do whatever you can. https://t.co/DViJOICPmN
— Solma Ahmed #betterworld🇵🇸 (@solma_ahmed) June 25, 2024
On Tuesday, Novara Media reported:
In a hypothetical two-candidate contest between Labour and Corbyn, Corbyn would win 55% of votes to Labour’s 45% (excluding undecided voters). Corbyn also had a net favourability rating of +21.6, while Starmer had just +0.3.
Really important not to read too much into one poll – particularly a constituency poll.
What this tells us is that Labour are (probably) ahead, but that it is a two horse race between Labour’s candidate and Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North. https://t.co/DLEZG0ufLi
— James Armstrong (@PoliticoTeacher) June 25, 2024
It seems the non-existent threat of the Tories taking the seat may be what is preventing people from voting for Corbyn. But with just a 6% projection, right now it is an impossibility.
Climate canvassing for Corbyn
On Tuesday evening Corbyn was joined by Mikaela Loach and Green New Deal Rising for a ‘Climate canvas for Corbyn’. Notably, the photos shared on social media show them surrounded by lots of young people. This is a group that many political parties have failed to engage during this election so far:
Great to support @jeremycorbyn for a doorknocking session with @mikaelaloach talking all things climate justice 💪
This is our last chance to elect politicians who will fight climate chaos. Join us on polling day to help win the representation we need 👉 https://t.co/GMgRLjbYL6 pic.twitter.com/KUiRXtP0LB
— Green New Deal Rising (@GNDRising) June 25, 2024
The climate crisis is here, and neither Labour nor the Tories understand the magnitude of the threat facing us all.
As an Independent MP, I will fight for the systemic change needed to save our natural world.
On 4th July, vote independent to put people and planet before profit! pic.twitter.com/nQ2Zruwg41
— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) June 26, 2024
A quick evening canvass with @GNDRising before the Euros! ⚽️ pic.twitter.com/yo01uko31J
— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) June 25, 2024
The new poll backs up what the the Canary has previously reported. Both the Greens and Lib Dems could stand down and endorse Corbyn. This would create far more certainty about keeping Labour out of the seat:
Not according to the latest poll. You want to fix the NHS? Back JC in Islington North and drop out of a seat you have no hope of winning.
— Maryam Irshad (@MaryamI06713475) June 25, 2024
I’m not one to lecture parties about splitting the vote, but here it would really make sense for @TheGreenParty to come to an understanding with Corbyn and stand down. https://t.co/0eA5fkQ6ur
— Ross McNally (@RossMcNally_) June 25, 2024
Only Corbyn can beat Labour in Islington North. Of course, that’s the guy who supports the privatisation of the NHS and has his very own private healthcare firm.
While the polls are not hugely in Corbyn’s favour right now, that gives even more of a reason for his supporters to ramp up their efforts in the last eight days of this campaign.
The former Labour leader has clearly drawn huge amounts of support, so now it comes down to meeting people where they’re at – on the doorstep. This is something Corbyn had embodied throughout his long political career.
Feature image via Jeremy Corbyn/X
