Between 11-13 April, five new opinion polls were released. Each of them showed the same thing. As the Conservative Party continues to face crisis after crisis over its hand handling of Brexit, its support is plummeting. And Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party could be heading for government.
Poll leads
Britain Elects keeps track of all the polls on the UK’s voting intentions.
On 11 April, a BMG poll put Labour in a two-point lead over the Conservatives. While Labour support was slightly reduced, the Conservatives were down a staggering 10 points:
Westminster voting intention (ft. new parties):
LAB: 31% (-3)
CON: 29% (-10)
CHUK: 8% (+8)
LDEM: 8% (-4)
UKIP: 7% (+2)
BREX: 6% (+6)
GRN: 4% (-)via @BMGResearch, 02 – 05 Apr
Chgs. w/ 08 Mar standard voting intention.— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 11, 2019
Then, on the same day, a Hanbury poll gave Labour a massive nine-point lead. The last time a party had a nine-point lead at a general election, it won a parliamentary majority of 167:
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 40%
CON: 31%
LDEM: 8%
UKIP: 8%
GRN: 5%via @HanburyStrategy, 05 – 08 Apr
First voting intention by Hanbury – BPC approved pollster. Welcome!— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 11, 2019
A third poll released on 11 April, showed a four-point Labour lead. Again, support for the Conservatives had fallen:
English & Welsh Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 41% (-1)
CON: 37% (-8)
LDEM: 10% (+2)
UKIP: 7% (+5)
GRN: 2% (-)
CHUK: 1% (+1)via @Survation, 03 – 06 Apr
Chgs. w/ GE2017.pic.twitter.com/TohhdJ5UkX pic.twitter.com/8UzmVkLW56— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 11, 2019
Rising Labour support
Some polls found Labour support to be slightly down but by much less than the drop in support for the Conservative Party. However, a Kantar poll found Labour support had actually risen by four points since March:
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 35% (+4)
CON: 31% (-9)
LDEM: 11% (+3)
UKIP: 7% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-2)via @KantarPublic, 04 – 08 Apr
Chgs. w/ 11 Mar
Tabs: https://t.co/1S8Peo44cA— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 11, 2019
And finally, on 13 April, YouGov found Labour support on the rise as well. YouGov put Labour in the lead in one of its polls for the first time since July 2018:
Westminster voting intention (ft. new parties):
LAB: 32% (+1)
CON: 28% (-4)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
BREX: 8% (+3)
UKIP: 6% (-1)
CHUK: 3% (+3)
GRN: 3% (-1)via @YouGov, 10 – 11 Apr
Chgs. w/ 03 AprFirst Labour lead with YouGov since July 2018.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 13, 2019
All of this shows one thing. If the government is forced to call an election to break the Brexit deadlock, Theresa May’s likely to be booted out of office. And then Corbyn would be our next prime minister.
Featured image via Rwendland – Wikimedia Commons.
