In the 2024 general election, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has been trying to paint itself as an NHS saviour following years of Tory punishment. A new study from the Nuffield Trust, however, has exposed that Labour’s plan is “tighter even than the coalition government’s “austerity” period”.
Given that many voters were hoping Labour might fix things, the reaction has not been positive:
Even Nuffield Trust is calling out tories and labour as further destroying the NHS. One and the same. Neither what we need
Vote Independents, TUSC, check out your Green. Do not support more of the same 💩 https://t.co/mTqL2bEIF2
— Up_Again ItWasAScam 💙 #TUSC #PAL (@up_again) June 16, 2024
Demonstrably austerity
The Nuffield Trust note that the Conservative Party, Labour, and Lib Dems have all been less than transparent on their plans:
With election manifestos from the three largest parties in England now published, the electorate, not unreasonably, would like to know how the parties compare on funding the NHS.
Sadly, none of the parties have thus far chosen to be transparent on this matter. Instead, each has published costings documents alongside their manifestos purporting to set out planned “extra” funding for health and social care by 2028/29, but without any information on the baseline spending level this “extra” would come on top of.
To help inform the election debate, we have tried to fill this void with some informed assumptions to allow like-for-like comparisons.
Perhaps Labour will complain that the Nuffield Trust misrepresented them. If they do, that’s really their own fault for not being transparent in the first place.
The Nuffield Trust continues:
Our core assumption is that all three parties accept as their baseline that total spending by the Department of Health and Social Care will increase by at least a real terms 0.8% each year between 2024/25 and 2028/29.
That figure stems from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s base case for the next Parliament which assumes day-to-day spending across all government departments increases by a real terms 1% each year, while capital spending (on longer-term investments such as buildings and equipment) is frozen in cash terms.
Applied to the DHSC, that assumption results in real terms annual increases of 0.8%, and forms the funding baseline, on top of which we can compare each party’s pledged “extra”.
It is worth noting that without this assumption, the “extra” spending by 2028/29 pledged by each of the three largest parties would be insufficient to allow NHS spending to keep up with inflation. We have discounted that as a possibility, because it is both implausible and also at odds with the explicit statement in at least one manifesto (the Conservatives’) that funding will increase at above-inflation levels.
Next we get to the section which is causing a problem for supporters who want to believe the hype:
Applying the listed “extra” spending pledged by each party to a real terms base case for total health spending annual growth of 0.8% would result in the next four years being the tightest in NHS history under the Conservative and Labour pledges – tighter even than the coalition government’s “austerity” period, which saw funding grow by just 1.4% real terms a year between 2010/11 and 2014/15.
The Liberal Democrats’ pledge on health spending would take real terms annual increases marginally higher than the austerity low point, with average increases of 1.5%, while the Conservatives would offer annual increases of 0.9%, and Labour would offer 1.1% per year.
That’s right – Labour’s plan – as far as we can tell – would mean less investment than the David Cameron years – i.e. the period which truly fucked the NHS:
Left: David Cameron says that austerity cuts to the NHS did not reduce the NHS's capabilities to provide an adequate service during covid.
Right: Sky News, "Years of austerity left UK 'hugely unprepared 'for COVID pandemic, report says." pic.twitter.com/8y4FYTua7N
— Farrukh (@implausibleblog) June 19, 2023
Labour’s referendum on reality
Starmer is claiming that he will not return the country to austerity:
Keir Starmer, "We will not raise taxes on working people: income tax, National Insurance, or VAT. Because all of our plans are fully costed and none of them require tax rises"
"We're not going to austerity.. We are not returning to austerity.. What we are returning to is growth… pic.twitter.com/mz9nKCmsiX
— Farrukh (@implausibleblog) June 9, 2024
Arguably, of course, we never left austerity. The cuts haven’t been as bad as those made in the Cameron years, but there was no return to the barely-adequate spending of old – we’ve just limped onwards. In that sense, Starmer is correct that his plans won’t return us to austerity; they’ll simply sustain the austerity we already have.
Either way, people are having an extremely negative reaction to Labour’s barefaced austerity proposals:
Labour and Tories would ‘both leave NHS worse off than under austerity’.
7.57m NHS England hospital appointment waiting list.
300,000 a year die waiting.
Lives secondary to arbitrary fiscal rules, preserving wealth of the rich.
Privatisation by stealthhttps://t.co/lSIIMEmxsD
— Prem Sikka (@premnsikka) June 16, 2024
What’s wrong with the Labour manifesto: From muzzling Palestinian rights to embracing austerity & outsourcing the NHS, Labour's ‘tough choices’ always seem to hurt normal people while sparing wealthy donors. That’s why I am running to unseat Starmer on 4/7 https://t.co/KqpDqtSluB
— Andrew Feinstein (@andrewfeinstein) June 14, 2024
Cake or death?
-Ooh cake please.
There is no cake. https://t.co/d5YtRFR0PJ— WillieMillersMoustache (@williemillersm1) June 16, 2024
Independent analysis by Nuffield Trust confirms that both Labour and Tory manifestos will be worse for the NHS than the Tory austerity cuts.
Only the Green Party will increase NHS spending in real terms to fix the fourteen years of Tory destruction.https://t.co/RvVdH1c1I9— Pete Kennedy (@PeteKennedy) June 15, 2024
The below video demonstrates that Labour is literally repeating the Cameron-led austerity drive word for word:
Wes Streeting this morning: "We are making hard choices. We make no apology for that"
History, tragedy, farce etc. #trevorphillips pic.twitter.com/mwlCylcsVD
— Saul Staniforth (@SaulStaniforth) June 16, 2024
Despite the stark reality of their own figures, Labour is campaigning on being pro-NHS and anti-austerity:
Labour Party people! We have 4 days left to save our NHS, stop a hard and vicious Brexit, and really end austerity. I’ve been out all over our country campaigning for Labour. Please please get out there and help in your nearest marginal seats if you can. My message here👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/pQ1PV13PlE
— Eddie Izzard (@eddieizzard) December 8, 2019
Given this, you could forgive people for believing that Labour is pro-NHS and anti-austerity.
It isn’t, though.
And it’s clear to anyone who pays the least bit of attention.
Meet the new boss
The more people see of Starmer and his party, the more obvious the deception becomes:
A young girl tells Keir Starmer they can’t afford heating
He laughs and recounts how his son is now too tall for a onesie
A vote for this privileged, austerity loving, genocide supporting, establishment Tory in a red tie is an act of self harm.pic.twitter.com/3ZMdEGxH5o
— Howard Beckett (@BeckettUnite) June 10, 2024
It’s understandable that people want to vote the Tories out in the upcoming election.
For those who vote Labour, however, just do so understanding that a vote for them is a vote for austerity.
Featured image via Sky News
